Spain: Not waving but drowning - bailout tomorrow

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  • user warning: Table './external/cache_views_data' is marked as crashed and last (automatic?) repair failed query: UPDATE cache_views_data SET data = 'a:4:{s:4:\"head\";s:0:\"\";s:3:\"css\";a:0:{}s:2:\"js\";a:0:{}s:6:\"output\";s:2393:\"<div class=\"view view-audio view-id-audio view-display-id-block_1 view-dom-id-2\">\n \n \n \n <div class=\"view-content\">\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-1 views-row-odd views-row-first\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/grassroots-gathering-capitalist-crisis\" title=\"Grassroots Gathering and capitalist crisis - audio from Cork\">Grassroots Gathering and capitalist crisis -...</a></span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-2 views-row-even\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/voting-marriage-equality-critical-marriage-dabf21015\" title=\"Voting for Marriage Equality While Being Critical of Marriage - DABF 21015 Panel Video &amp; audio\">Voting for Marriage Equality While Being Critical...</a></span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-3 views-row-odd\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/content/audio-ictu-march-feb-2009\" title=\"Interviw from ICTU Feb 2009 march against job losses and pay cuts\">Interviw from ICTU Feb 2009 march against job...</a></span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-4 views-row-even\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/content/left-unity-ireland-audio\" title=\"Left Unity? What sort of Left should we be trying to build? audio\">Left Unity? What sort of Left should we be trying...</a></span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-5 views-row-odd\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/ampaign-talks-dublin-nato-vegan-iops\" title=\"Audio of 10 Minute Campaign Talks at the Dublin Anarchist Bookfair 2014 - Stop NATO, Vegan, IOPS\">Audio of 10 Minute Campaign Talks at the Dublin...</a></span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-6 views-row-even views-row-last\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/thinking-about-anarchism-hierarchy\" title=\"Thinking About Anarchism: Hierarchy - What it is and isn&#039;t\">Thinking About Anarchism: Hierarchy - What it is...</a></span>\n </div>\n </div>\n </div>\n \n \n \n \n<div class=\"more-link\">\n <a href=\"/anarchism/audio\">\n more </a>\n</div>\n \n \n \n</div> \";}', created = 1566551604, expire = 1566551904, headers = '', serialized = 1 WHERE cid = 'audio:block_1:output:51c83737d0215cd313b026bb505e50ba' in /var/www/public/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './external/cache_views_data' is marked as crashed and last (automatic?) repair failed query: UPDATE cache_views_data SET data = 'a:3:{s:6:\"result\";a:6:{i:0;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8695\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:59:\"The housing crisis in Ireland - 8 points on the big picture\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:745:\"<p><img alt=\"\" src=\"/sites/default/files/HousingMarch.jpg\" style=\"width: 400px; height: 320px; margin: 3px; float: right;\" />The WSM has been having a &#39;big picture&#39; discussion around the housing crisis from which the following points emerged. We are publishing them ahead of the December 1st demonstration in Dublon (14.00 Parnell square).</p>\r\n<p>1. We built our cities and the houses of our cities. They are ours, not to slave in, but to master and to own*.</p>\r\n<p>2. The contemporary crisis of capitalism has made markedly visible the relationship between finance capital and property speculation, between the concentrated money-power of bankers and speculators and the shaping of the built environment in our towns and cities.</p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1543494053\";}i:1;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8679\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:25:\"DABF Safer spaces policy \";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:593:\"<div>\r\n This policy applies to the bookfair, the fundraising afterparty, the meeting spaces and online spaces. This policy is made in order to create an environment to foster free discussion and sharing of ideas, those engaging in abusive or oppressive behaviour will be asked to leave the space. We encourage all attendees to be aware of this policy, and to report to book-fair volunteers if they observe people engaging in abusive or oppressive behaviour.</div>\r\n<div>\r\n &nbsp;</div>\r\n<div>\r\n We define the following as abusive behaviours which are not tolerated in this space;</div>\r\n<div>\r\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1536841535\";}i:2;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8675\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:47:\"Get your Dublin Anarchist Bookfair 2018 T-shirt\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:310:\"<p><strong>Get your Dublin Anarchist Bookfair t-shirt! [ONLINE SALES ARE NOW CLOSED]</strong><br />\r\n <img alt=\"\" src=\"/sites/default/files/Womens%20tee.jpg\" style=\"width: 300px; height: 300px;\" />&nbsp;&nbsp;<img alt=\"\" src=\"/sites/default/files/Mens%20tee_0.jpg\" style=\"width: 300px; height: 300px;\" /></p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1536010979\";}i:3;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"6387\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:97:\"12th Dublin Anarchist Bookfair - 14th & 15th September 2018 - Teachers Club 35 Parnell sq & Wynns\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:745:\"<p><img alt=\"\" src=\"/sites/default/files/DABF_FB_Event.png\" style=\"width: 350px; height: 195px; margin: 3px; float: right;\" />The 12th Dublin Anarchist Bookfair took place on the 15th September 2018 at the Teachers Club 35 Parnell square and on the evening of the 14th at Wynns hotel. &nbsp;Every year hundreds of people attend the Dublin Anarchist Bookfair for a day of inspiring discussions and the opportunity of meeting lots of other radicals, browsing books and meeting campaigns.</p>\r\n<p>We will be uploading about a dozen audio and video recordings of the panels at the bookfair, follow us on Twitter or Facebook to get notification of new uploads or check&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.wsm.ie/anarchist-bookfair\">Anarchist bookfair</a></p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1528363710\";}i:4;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8642\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:51:\"8 reasons we are voting Yes to Repeal the hated 8th\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:375:\"<p class=\"rtecenter\"><img alt=\"\" src=\"/sites/default/files/Repeal8thWSMbannerthin.jpg\" style=\"width: 650px; height: 307px; margin: 3px;\" /></p>\r\n<p>On May 25th we finally get to vote to Repeal the hated 8th amendment. &nbsp;Here we present the 8 reasons we are voting Yes to Repeal along with many of the articles we have published on the issue in recent months. &nbsp;</p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1527172249\";}i:5;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8639\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:52:\"What Happened When Portugal Decriminalised Abortion?\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:970:\"<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong>With the referendum to repeal the 8th <strong><img alt=\"\" src=\"/sites/default/files/portugal%20abortion%20pic.png\" style=\"height: 341px; width: 400px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; margin: 3px; float: right;\" /></strong>amendment on May 25th drawing nearer, it&rsquo;s with great interest that we look at the experience of other countries which have struggled against an abortion ban like ours, to learn from the lessons of the campaign, and to &lsquo;look into the future&rsquo;, as it were, and see the result of decriminalising abortion. As such, here are some brief notes on Portugal.</strong></p>\r\n<p dir=\"ltr\">On 11th February 2007, in a national referendum, the Portuguese voted in favor of the decriminalization of the &quot;voluntary interruption of the pregnancy&quot; (VGI). It was the end of more than 30 years of struggles, advances and retreats, with many public debates dividing several quarters of Portuguese society.</p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1525798800\";}}s:10:\"total_rows\";i:1579;s:5:\"pager\";a:5:{s:9:\"use_pager\";s:1:\"0\";s:14:\"items_per_page\";i:6;s:7:\"element\";i:0;s:6:\"offset\";i:0;s:12:\"current_page\";i:0;}}', created = 1566551604, expire = 1566551904, headers = '', serialized = 1 WHERE cid = 'wsm_only:block_1:results:692e0a14e0b7ab966d18830fa49232e2' in /var/www/public/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
  • user warning: Table './external/cache_views_data' is marked as crashed and last (automatic?) repair failed query: UPDATE cache_views_data SET data = 'a:4:{s:4:\"head\";s:0:\"\";s:3:\"css\";a:0:{}s:2:\"js\";a:0:{}s:6:\"output\";s:3201:\"<div class=\"view view-wsm-only view-id-wsm_only view-display-id-block_1 view-dom-id-4\">\n \n \n \n <div class=\"view-content\">\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-1 views-row-odd views-row-first\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/housing-crisis-notes-big-picture-ireland\" title=\"The housing crisis in Ireland - 8 points on the big picture\">The housing crisis in Ireland - 8 points on the big...</a></span>\n </div>\n \n <div class=\"views-field-teaser\">\n <span class=\"field-content\">The WSM has been having a &#39;big picture&#39; discussion around the housing crisis...</span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-2 views-row-even\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/dabf-safer-spaces-policy\" title=\"DABF Safer spaces policy \">DABF Safer spaces policy</a></span>\n </div>\n \n <div class=\"views-field-teaser\">\n <span class=\"field-content\">\n This policy applies to the bookfair, the fundraising afterparty, the meeting spaces...</span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-3 views-row-odd\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/get-your-dublin-anarchist-bookfair-2018-t-shirt\">Get your Dublin Anarchist Bookfair 2018 T-shirt</a></span>\n </div>\n \n <div class=\"views-field-teaser\">\n <span class=\"field-content\">Get your Dublin Anarchist Bookfair t-shirt! [ONLINE SALES ARE NOW CLOSED]\n &nbsp;&nbsp;</span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-4 views-row-even\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/dublin-anarchist-bookfair-latest\" title=\"12th Dublin Anarchist Bookfair - 14th &amp; 15th September 2018 - Teachers Club 35 Parnell sq &amp; Wynns\">12th Dublin Anarchist Bookfair - 14th &amp; 15th...</a></span>\n </div>\n \n <div class=\"views-field-teaser\">\n <span class=\"field-content\">The 12th Dublin Anarchist Bookfair took place on the 15th September 2018 at the...</span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-5 views-row-odd\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/8-reasons-vote-yes-to-repeal\">8 reasons we are voting Yes to Repeal the hated 8th</a></span>\n </div>\n \n <div class=\"views-field-teaser\">\n <span class=\"field-content\">\nOn May 25th we finally get to vote to Repeal the hated 8th amendment. &nbsp;Here we...</span>\n </div>\n </div>\n <div class=\"views-row views-row-6 views-row-even views-row-last\">\n \n <div class=\"views-field-title\">\n <span class=\"field-content\"><a href=\"/c/what-happened-portugal-decriminalised-abortion-anarchism\">What Happened When Portugal Decriminalised Abortion?</a></span>\n </div>\n \n <div class=\"views-field-teaser\">\n <span class=\"field-content\">With the referendum to repeal the 8th amendment on May 25th drawing nearer, it&rsquo;s...</span>\n </div>\n </div>\n </div>\n \n \n \n \n<div class=\"more-link\">\n <a href=\"/all\">\n more </a>\n</div>\n \n \n \n</div> \";}', created = 1566551604, expire = 1566551904, headers = '', serialized = 1 WHERE cid = 'wsm_only:block_1:output:30e25f9bd85c357eb10c6c886f8c678d' in /var/www/public/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './external/cache_views_data' is marked as crashed and last (automatic?) repair failed query: UPDATE cache_views_data SET data = 'a:3:{s:6:\"result\";a:6:{i:0;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8692\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:57:\"No LNG terminal on the Shannon - Climate Change & Methane\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:786:\"<p>We interviewed William Hederman, an environmental researcher living in County Clare, about the planned Liquefied Natural Gas terminal on the Shannon. Construction of it will mean Ireland will fail to meet its Climate Change commitments and will instead be tied into pumping out additional Greenhouse Gases for decades. As the LNG will come from the US it will includes fracked gas, a process banned in Ireland that releases three times as much of the very powerful Climate Change gas methane as conventional gas. [<a href=\"https://youtu.be/iO960KeoaHE\">video</a>]</p>\r\n<p><iframe allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/iO960KeoaHE\" width=\"560\"></iframe></p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1542897581\";}i:1;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8687\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:30:\"Moral philosophy and abortion \";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:1167:\"<p><img alt=\"\" src=\"/sites/default/files/Philosophers.jpg\" style=\"width: 400px; height: 309px; margin: 3px; float: right;\" />The debate around abortion is sometimes characterised as an opposition between the morals of the church and personal morals. But is this an accurate description? Moral philosophy can broadly be defined as the branch of philosophy that contemplates what is right and wrong. It explores the nature of morality and examines how people should live their lives in relation to others. But a closer look at what characterises moral philosophy leads to the conclusion that while the expression &ldquo;relying on personal morals&rdquo; may come across as a useful shortcut to describe what the pro-choice stance is about, it is also a misuse of moral terminology which has the effect of casting a positive light on moral philosophy, rather than helping us come to terms with the deeply problematic nature of this field. As I hope to make clear, arguments in favour of abortion rights are rooted in anti-authoritarianism whereas moral philosophy can only exist as a rhetorical tool of authoritarianism (even when it is used with good intentions).</p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1538146665\";}i:2;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8686\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:88:\"Let Them Drown: Climate Change is War - and Wall Street is Winning audio from #DABF 2018\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:587:\"<p>This audio is an independently organised panel from the 2018 Dublin Anarchist Bookfair on the bleak reality of climate change and its intersections with financial capitalism, state politics and migration. [<a href=\"https://www.mixcloud.com/workerssolidarity/climate-change-is-war-and-wall-street-is-winning-audio-from-dabf-2018/\">audio</a>]</p>\r\n<p><iframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"120\" src=\"https://www.mixcloud.com/widget/iframe/?hide_cover=1&amp;light=1&amp;feed=%2Fworkerssolidarity%2Fclimate-change-is-war-and-wall-street-is-winning-audio-from-dabf-2018%2F\" width=\"100%\"></iframe>\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1538128457\";}i:3;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8685\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:99:\"Ending Direct Provision: Migrant Voices speak out about the Asylum process in Ireland at #DABF 2018\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:765:\"<p>People currently in Direct Provision talk about the dehumanising conditions and the large profits being made out of their suffering by the companies that own the direct provision centres. People don&rsquo;t understand why we ended up in Direct Provision, we hope to bring our stories out of the shadows of Irish society. [<a href=\"https://www.mixcloud.com/workerssolidarity/ending-direct-provision-migrant-voices-speak-out-about-the-asylum-process-in-ireland-at-dabf-2018/\">audio</a>]</p>\r\n<p><iframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"120\" src=\"https://www.mixcloud.com/widget/iframe/?hide_cover=1&amp;light=1&amp;feed=%2Fworkerssolidarity%2Fending-direct-provision-migrant-voices-speak-out-about-the-asylum-process-in-ireland-at-dabf-2018%2F\" width=\"100%\"></iframe></p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1537883979\";}i:4;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8684\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:66:\"How my politics is intersectional - audio from panel at 2018 #DABF\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:634:\"<p>Panel from the 2018 Dublin Anarchist bookfair on the intersection between race politics, class and gender in Ireland with a particular focus on the current housing struggles and the Together for Yes referendum campaign / Repeal movement. [<a href=\"https://www.mixcloud.com/workerssolidarity/how-my-politics-is-intersectional-panel-at-2018-dublin-anarchist-bookfair/\">audio</a>]</p>\r\n<p><iframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"120\" src=\"https://www.mixcloud.com/widget/iframe/?hide_cover=1&amp;light=1&amp;feed=%2Fworkerssolidarity%2Fhow-my-politics-is-intersectional-panel-at-2018-dublin-anarchist-bookfair%2F\" width=\"100%\"></iframe></p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1537536634\";}i:5;O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:3:\"nid\";s:4:\"8683\";s:10:\"node_title\";s:91:\"Rojava: Eyewitness to a women\'s revolution - report back from a May 2018 trip at #DABF 2018\";s:21:\"node_revisions_teaser\";s:597:\"<p>The 12th Dublin anarchist bookfair heard this account from Wendy, a Human Rights &amp; immigration lawyer who visited Rojava in May 2018 as part of a fact finding delegation. [<a href=\"https://www.mixcloud.com/workerssolidarity/rojava-eyewitness-to-a-womens-revolution-report-back-from-a-may-2018-trip-at-dabf-2018/\">audio</a>]</p>\r\n<p><iframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"120\" src=\"https://www.mixcloud.com/widget/iframe/?hide_cover=1&amp;light=1&amp;feed=%2Fworkerssolidarity%2Frojava-eyewitness-to-a-womens-revolution-report-back-from-a-may-2018-trip-at-dabf-2018%2F\" width=\"100%\"></iframe></p>\r\n\";s:21:\"node_revisions_format\";s:1:\"2\";s:12:\"node_created\";s:10:\"1537442594\";}}s:10:\"total_rows\";i:807;s:5:\"pager\";a:5:{s:9:\"use_pager\";s:1:\"0\";s:14:\"items_per_page\";i:6;s:7:\"element\";i:0;s:6:\"offset\";i:2;s:12:\"current_page\";i:0;}}', created = 1566551604, expire = 1566551904, headers = '', serialized = 1 WHERE cid = 'not_wsm:block_1:results:6f171fd0922b167e997398452392a596' in /var/www/public/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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Date:

Spain began this week in bailout territory. Despite the increasingly shrill warnings of imminent catastrophe from Madrid, the battle of wills between the Spanish capital and Brussels, Berlin and Frankfurt has managed to avert the hour of judgement thus far. But can they achieve the aim of preventing the fall of Spain before the second Greek election?

Yesterday’s auction of Spanish debt bonds was seen as the likely crunch point coming into the week. Spain started from the position of being past the 450 bps technical limit set by the main European clearing house for the maximum spread between its 10 year bond yields and those of a basket of AAA grade Eurozone 10 years. Being in breach of this limit for over 5 working days was the technical mechanism that brought about the Irish and Portuguese bailouts in the past two years. The simple version is that banks holding national bonds need to pay a charge to the clearing house, which acts as guarantor, to temporarily swap the bonds for a cash equivalent. This charge is called the “margin call” and has to be vested with the clearer. If the clearer raises the margin call from the basic 5% to 15%, then all banks with these instruments loaned out for cash, suddenly need to find the extra cash to pay the increased margin. If all their money is in national bonds, then they have to sell some at any price to pay the margin call. The bond prices go down, the ratings agencies lower their ratings, the clearing house increases the margin again, creating the “death spiral” that forced Ireland and Portugal into the Troika bailout - not because the state was bust at the time, but because their banks were days away from cash flow collapse.

Yet, although it was 6 working days since Spain crossed the technical boundary into the “death zone” this Monday, the London markets were closed for the ignomious monarchist Jubilee. Both for Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday when the London markets re-opened, the spread had crept down to 447 bps, and after nine calendar days in the red, Spain was temporarily in the clear again. Yet when Cristóbal Montoro, the Spanish Finance Minister said in a radio interview on Tuesday that Spain was shut out of the capital markets, he was in fact only telling the truth at that time. Although he got slammed for it, it seems his words had the desired effect, as by the time the markets opened the next morning, the dark arts practicioners in the ECB had worked their magic, even if only temporarily.

Certainly at this stage, it is an open secret that the only buyers for Thursdays Spanish debt auction are the very Spanish banks who are at the mercy of the state for their continued existence. It also seems likely (figures are hard to get) that the bulk of the Spanish banks holdings of sovereign debt are now exchanged directly with the ECB for ready cash, rather than the open repo market. Even so this week has seen a lot of pretty high level phone calls, and not just between the European players, but a G7 level phone call on Wednesday. Media reported some surprise on the Japanese representative reporting that the Greek exit (or Grexit in the recent, ugly, financial neologism) was not discussed. Presumably because Spain was the main topic of conversation.

The fact that Spain, the 4th largest EU economy, was always “too big to bail” on the same terms as the “3 little pigs” of Portugal, Ireland and Greece, with the existing bailout funds (EFSF & EFSM) has long been an accepted part of the Eurocrisis political landscape. Now that Spain is firmly in bailout territory, the scrap over what happens next has got pretty heated. Germany wants to avoid the full costs of a full bailout of the Spanish state as a whole, for which there are insufficient funds at the moment, but it still wants to impose same strictures on Spain, of Troika rule via “Memorandums of Understanding”, as imposed on the 3 little pigs, but in return for only the money needed to rescue the Spanish banks. The Spanish government is understandably not a fan of this plan. Instead they want the Troika to provide money directly to the bank rescue fund (the unfortunately-named FROB - Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring), without imposing direct economic rule on the state - or making the state take the costs of the bank bailout onto the sovereign debt balance sheet, as Ireland and the others have already done.

Naturally, if the “bailout-lite” plan went ahead before the second Greek election on Sunday after next (17th June), then the three little pigs will realise that the ruination of their countries to pay for the local bank bailout is a case of one law for the little guys and another for the big fellers like Spain. This manifest injustice could only strengthen the arguments of the Greek anti-austerity parties that the Greek deal is unfair and could be renegotiated without leaving the Eurozone. “We want what Spain just got”, would be a powerful slogan. Hence the attempts in the megaphone diplomacy in the media this week that a decision on such a plan would have to wait until after the reports from two investigations currently underway into the true solvency state of the Spanish banking system. The first of these, by the IMF, is due to report on Monday. The second, by external Eurostat investigators commissioned by the Spanish state at the time of the Bankia bailout, is not due to report until June 20th - a date conveniently after the Greek election and nicely timed for the start of the G20 meeting in Mexico, where Spain, presumably, could throw itself on the mercy of the current world crisis management council.

But the news this Friday morning is that it is looking like the hopes of delaying the bailout until then, are fading. From this morning, Reuters reported that a conference call of Euro Finance ministers is scheduled for tomorrow (Saturday) morning, after which Spain will annouce its bailout. The story has since been corroborated by a number of other sources, while still being vehemently denied by other Spanish government sources. Irish and Portuguese observers will ruefully recognise the pattern of ever-increasing denials that a bailout is about to be annouced as the sign that it is imminent. The game, it seems, is up.

Whether the bailout tomorrow is the full unconditional surrender to the tender mercies of Troika rule, as Germany originally intended, or the “bailout-lite” option of the EFSF funding the FROB directly, with no strings attached, as Spain wants, or some kludge between the two, we will find out in the next 24 hours it seems. Whatever the final shape of the deal, it is bound to raise questions over the current punitive regimes being visited on Ireland, Portugal and Greece. Watch this space...

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